Gov. Joe Lombardo and Attorney General Aaron Ford remain neck-and-neck in polling data with just over three months remaining in Nevada’s gubernatorial campaign.
The race has been declared a toss-up by 270toWin, a nonpartisan outlet that aggregates polls and issues projections in political races. It is one of only five governor’s races it considers too close to call, and it’s the only one that includes an incumbent.
The group’s projection is supported by a mid-July Public Policy Polling survey sponsored by the Democratic Governor’s Association that showed each candidate supported by 41 percent of those surveyed — the same level of support recorded in an Emerson College poll from last fall, long before this year’s primary election.
The results come as no surprise to Sondra Cosgrove, the executive director and board chair of Vote Nevada, a civic-engagement nonprofit. She said the polls mirror the state’s relatively balanced partisan voter registration data, which as of July 1 counted 674,799 registered Democrats and 660,421 registered Republicans.
Cosgrove said that Lombardo and Ford appear to be holding on to their bases, adding that Nevada voters may have checked out of party politics and likely won’t be swayed by ads alone.
“Nonpartisans didn’t engage in the primary,” she said about the state’s 21.8 percent voter turnout in the June primary. “How are they going to reach out and grab those voters?”
Campaigns finding messages
Political swipes began long before the candidates secured their parties’ nominations in June.
Lombardo, a Republican, has been running on his record as governor, touting policies such as job creation and housing initiatives.
“On the campaign trail, Governor Lombardo’s message to Nevadans is simple: We’ve made real progress, but we’re not done yet,” his campaign wrote in a statement to the Review-Journal. “He will continue fighting to make Nevada more affordable, safer, and full of opportunity for another four years — without tax hikes and failed liberal policies his opponent supports.”
He and an allied political action committee hold significant fundraising advantages over Ford’s campaign. They’ve flooded the market with TV commercials that eclipse any in support of Ford, the Democratic nominee.
Ford’s messaging has centered on affordability and helping the working class. He’s campaigned at a multitude of events at union halls and small businesses across the state. His campaign’s ads have popped up on social media.
“Attorney General Ford has been crystal clear about his top priority as Governor: ending the Lombardo-Trump cost-of-living crisis forcing Nevadans to pay higher grocery, housing, health care, and gas costs, and building a worker-centric economy so that working Nevadans can reach their own version of the American dream,” campaign spokesperson Prerna Jagadeesh wrote in a statement to the Review-Journal.
Political mudslinging
Both candidates have tried tying the opponent to polarizing national politicians. Ford has repeatedly linked Lombardo to President Donald Trump’s policies, while the Republican seeks to tie Ford to Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump has twice endorsed Lombardo, and Newsom and Harris have thrown their support behind Ford.
The state parties and national governors associations have amplified campaign messaging.
Better Nevada, a pro-Lombardo PAC, recently erected signs in Las Vegas with a photo-manipulated image of Ford with Newsom with the text: “GAVIN NEWSOM ENDORSES AARON FORD.”
“Ford has made it clear he wants to import the same failed California agenda and higher taxes that drove so many Nevadans out of that state in the first place — policies championed by his political mentors and recent visitors Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris,” Lombardo’s campaign said.
The PAC also has run a monthslong “High-Flying Ford” ad campaign criticizing the attorney general’s out-of-state travel, which Ford has repeatedly defended as legitimate work travel. The issue came to light about 10 months ago as a result of a Review-Journal investigation.
Meanwhile, the Nevada State Democratic Party has worked to draw attention to recently released body-camera footage from May that showed Lombardo after he was pulled over by Las Vegas police. In the short interaction, the governor interrupted the officer to say “I’m Joe Lombardo” and later, “come on, man” as the sergeant was explaining the alleged red light infraction. Lombardo’s campaign has vehemently denied that he was seeking preferential treatment.
A billboard-sized Lombardo campaign banner that overlooks the 215 Beltway in southwest Las Vegas was defaced with pasted text that reads “C’mon man.” The Metropolitan Police Department said Thursday that it had launched an investigation, adding that Lombardo’s team didn’t ask for the probe.
Big money
Cosgrove expects that campaign spending and voter engagement will ratchet up a couple of weeks before early voting begins, but for now, she said, voter interest is on a slow burn.
“I don’t know many people, outside those who are hardcore partisans, that are paying attention to politics right now,” She said. “I’m sure a lot of money is going to get spent, because people will be engaged by then,” she said.
UNLV historian Michael Green agrees that the summer doldrums might be short-lived. He said he expects a close and contentious race between Lombardo and Ford.
In the interim, Cosgrove said she would advise the candidates to continue going after free media promoting their official work: Lombardo can continue messaging around clawing back federal land for housing while Ford can continue touting his office’s court victories.
“Both are able to leverage their elected office without worrying about spending a whole lot of money,” she said. “That’s the power of incumbency.”
Lombardo’s campaign had about $9.2 million available at the end of June, while Ford had about $2.6 million remaining, according to disclosure forms. That’s separate from the funds that will continue pouring into the independent PACs that support them.
Records show that Better Nevada PAC raised about $15 million through the first half of 2026.
Kenneth Miller — associate political science professor at UNLV who specializes in campaign financing — finds it interesting that Lombardo has a massive fundraising advantage despite being in such a close race.
“You don’t see that often,” he said.
Miller also said that the bulk of out-of-state campaign dollars might’ve already poured into Nevada.
“There’s not a lot of national groups and national money coming into Nevada this year that you would normally get if you had a Senate seat up for grabs,” Miller said.
He said that it’s bound to benefit Lombardo, who would otherwise be in big trouble due to national conditions that suggest Republicans might have a bad electoral year. Still, he sees the race remaining tight through Election Day.
Green, the historian, said that campaign financing is “the mother’s milk of politics,” but that it also matters how the dollars are spent.
His advice for the campaigns: “You just have to buckle up, muscle up, and if you shouldn’t be talking about it, clam up.”
Can the lines of attack work?
Cosgrove and Miller don’t see Lombardo’s police interaction or Ford’s travel breaking through with voters.
“Neither one of those issues are particularly scandalous or odd,” Miller said.
“Ford’s travel is simply not that unusual, or impeded him from performing duties,” he said. “And Lombardo’s traffic stop was for a very minor traffic infraction … he received a warning anyway.”
Green thinks otherwise, noting that “strange things move voters.”
He noted another travel-related controversy during the 1988 race between then-Gov. Richard Bryan, who was challenging U.S. Sen. Chic Hecht, R-Nev.
Bryan had used an aging state-owned plane for work and ultimately approved a new one along with a unanimous Legislature vote, Green said.
“Hecht’s campaign claimed I have used state funds to purchase a plane for my personal use,” Green quoted Bryan as writing. “The claim was so patently false and so preposterous that I thought no one would believe it.”
Voters did, and the plane was consistently brought up during Bryan’s door-knocking operations, Green noted.
“And in the end, Bryan won,” he said. “But not by a lot.”
Contact Ricardo Torres-Cortez at rtorres@reviewjournal.com.
