The prevailing narrative around star forward Mitch Marner has been that he’s an outstanding regular-season player who struggles under the bright lights of the playoffs.
Perhaps never has a change of scenery done so much to obliterate a strongly held public belief as his trade to the Vegas Golden Knights this season.
Marner is not only thriving for the Stanley Cup Final bound Knights, he’s the prohibitive favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the postseason MVP.
The former Toronto star leads the NHL in points this postseason with 21, which includes seven goals.
He is currently listed almost universally as less than a 2-to-1 choice after opening around 50-1, at Westgate SuperBook. At least one local sportsbook director said his book was buried in liability on Marner and stood to take a significant loss should he win the award.
The odds are similar at other books. Marner was +145 at William Hill before puck drop in Wednesday night’s game between the Hurricanes and Canadiens.
Carolina goaltender Frederik Andersen was the next choice at +450 with Hurricanes forward Taylor Hall at +850.
The top pick from Montreal was goaltender Jakub Dobes at +2400.
But Marner also has stiff competition on his own team with goaltender Carter Hart at +1000 and center Jack Eichel at +1200.
The candidacy of Hart, who wasn’t even listed and was just part of the field at some books before the playoffs began while at least one book had him at 300-1, is where the debate gets the most fascinating.
He has been sensational in the postseason, especially in the past two rounds, solving the biggest area of concern for the Knights by providing consistent play in net.
But the Conn Smythe is voted on by an 18-member panel of selected members from the Professional Hockey Writers Association and the human element could be difficult to overcome for a figure whose mere presence in the league has offended certain sectors of the hockey world.
It’s an issue that was discussed by hockey insiders Frank Seravalli and John Buccigross on their podcast this week.
Seravalli first made the case that Hart has been outstanding the last two rounds, playing on a level that would earn him MVP consideration had he done it during the regular season.
“But will he actually get votes based on his off-ice history?” Seravalli pondered. “Will that cloud the voting in terms of how people process his candidacy? It shouldn’t. But will it? Will anyone want to touch that topic knowing there will be social media pushback and blowback if Carter Hart were somehow to win the Conn Smythe?”
It’s a legitimate question and the main reason why the odds aren’t shorter on Hart to win the award despite allowing just seven goals in four games against the league’s most explosive team in the Western Conference Final.
Narratives matter when human emotions and opinion are involved. This is not an objective wager like which team wins a game or a championship that is decided on the scoreboard.
“If Carter Hart is not in the conversation for the Conn Smythe, then shame on the voters,” TSN analyst and former NHL goaltender Jamie McLennan said on the Barn Burner podcast. “Mitch Marner I know is the leader and all of that. Great, no problem. He’s been awesome. But if they don’t get saves, (they aren’t in this position).”
Hart’s chances of overcoming the controversy to earn the favor of the voters would be much better if the Knights didn’t have another obvious candidate. If none of the stars were excelling and putting up big numbers at key moments, there would be almost no choice than to vote for Hart.
But Marner has been outstanding. And he’s got a positive narrative to bolster his candidacy.
Hart is going to have to be special in carrying the Knights to the title to get an award he should have a much clearer path to winning.
He has already shown an ability to play at that level, though.
Skaters have also won the Conn Smythe over goalies in four consecutive years and 74 percent of the time overall.
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
