Lake Mead is headed for an even more concerning, record-low level near the end of 2027, according to projections from federal forecasters released Friday.
In November 2027, the reservoir is likely to dip to 1032.76 feet above sea level — nearly 8 feet below the previous record low recorded in 2022, when receding levels began to reveal skeletal remains. That’s a chilling number based on an unseasonably warm winter and falling projections for runoff into Lake Powell, the releases of which flow into Lake Mead.
Lake Mead is the main water supply for the Las Vegas Valley. It provides water to heavy users from cities and farms in Arizona and California, as well.
The worsening outlook has put a shroud of emergency over yearslong talks between the seven states that share the Colorado River. State officials blew past a Feb. 14 deadline from the Trump administration to come to an agreement, and the federal government must put something in place by Oct. 1, the start of the next water year.
Without consulting its ally states of Arizona and California in the Lower Colorado River Basin, Nevada took the dealmaking into its own hands this month, pitching a last-ditch stopgap plan for the next two years. After that, Nevada officials believe region-wide drought is persistent enough that interstate agreements must happen twice a year instead of once every 20 years.
The Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico have refused to adopt any mandatory reductions in water use. Nevada’s latest plan doesn’t assume those states would make any reductions.
‘Poor hydrologic outlook’
According to Friday’s projection, Lake Powell could dip below so-called “minimum power pool” as soon as January. Below a certain elevation, the federal government has said releases to Lake Mead could be in jeopardy due to failing infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam.
Agencies will probably attempt to avoid both of those scenarios.
Some have predicted the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency tasked with managing water and dams in the West, will move water into Lake Powell from an upstream reservoir, such as Flaming Gorge in both Utah and Wyoming.
In a statement released about February’s projections, Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron said the Bureau of Reclamation began adjusting monthly releases on Dec. 1 to keep reservoir levels high. In 2026, the agency will weigh its options, he said.
“The basin’s poor hydrologic outlook highlights the necessity for collaboration as the Basin States, in collaboration with Reclamation, work on developing the next set of operating guidelines for the Colorado River system,” Cameron said. “Available tools will be utilized and coordination with partners will be essential this year to manage the reservoirs and protect infrastructure.”
Contact Alan Halaly at ahalaly@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlanHalaly on X.
