Familiarity breeds contempt.
In the case of the NFL conference championship games — both rematches from the regular season — familiarity also breeds comfort and confidence.
Especially in the NFC title game, where the Eagles and Commanders will renew their NFC East rivalry for the third time this season after splitting the first two meetings.
There have been only 19 divisional matchups in conference title games, and the home team has won 14 of them. Philadelphia is a consensus 6-point home favorite over Washington in Sunday’s showdown.
There have been only four divisional matchups in the conference championships since 2002, when the NFL expanded from six divisions to eight. All four winners went on to win the Super Bowl.
“I’m sure Philly kind of thought this game would be in Detroit (which was upset 45-31 by Washington last week), so they have to be happy that they’re hosting it and they’re playing a team they’re very familiar with,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “They wouldn’t say they’d rather play Washington than Detroit. But I’m sure, privately, they’re very happy about that.”
The Chiefs and Bills play in different divisions, but they will square off for the ninth time in the past five seasons, including the playoffs, in the AFC title game Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is a consensus 1½-point favorite over Buffalo, which has won won four in a row over the Chiefs in the regular season. But Kansas City has eliminated the Bills from the postseason in three of the past four years.
Buffalo beat the Chiefs 30-21 on Nov. 17 and covered as a 2½-point favorite. The line on Sunday’s rematch opened at pick’em at Circa Sports before sharp money on Kansas City caused the line to move to Chiefs -2.
“These teams are really even. The Bills are probably a touch better on a neutral (field), but most people would probably say it’s around a pick,” Circa NFL oddsmaker Dylan Sullivan said. “And you kind of add home-field advantage somewhere in the 1½- to 2½-point range.”
Ancient history
Sullivan said the series history between teams typically doesn’t factor much into the betting line. But the Chiefs are an exception.
“If you look at the Bills-Ravens, they played each other early in the season and the Ravens beat them (35-10). Then the Bills go out and win last week, so it doesn’t really matter, especially if it happened early in the season,” he said. “But the Chiefs obviously have a new layer every time they enter the playoffs. You kind of have to look at them historically in the playoffs.
“(Tight end) Travis Kelce is a turtle for 17 weeks, then all of a sudden it’s a playoff game and he starts playing well again.”
The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 and covered as 4½-point home favorites Nov. 14. Washington rallied for a 36-33 win as a 4-point home underdog Dec. 22 to end Philadelphia’s 10-game win streak. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts left with a concussion in the first quarter, and Commanders electric rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw five touchdown passes, including the game-winner with six seconds left.
Philadelphia opened as high as a 6½-point favorite in Sunday’s game and dropped as low as 4½ before shooting back to 6½ on Monday at the Westgate after one of its sharpest bettors wagered on the Eagles -5½.
By the book
The betting public is backing the underdogs in both games, against the spread and on the money line, with Washington +245 and Buffalo +110 at Station Sports.
The Commanders account for 65 percent of the tickets ATS and 67 percent of tickets on the money line.
“The Commanders are clearly a live ’dog, at least to the betting public,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “They are betting them not only to cover but to win the game outright.
“Jayden Daniels has had some success against the Eagles, and that’s one of the reasons they are getting some love as 6-point underdogs.”
The Bills account for 56 percent of the tickets ATS and 62 percent on the money line.
A whopping 85 percent of tickets are on the Bills-Chiefs over, which has climbed from 47½ to 48½, and 77 percent are on the Commanders-Eagles over 47½.
“The sportsbook is hoping for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl. The public is all over the underdogs to win, and this matchup would generate great action,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “And, of course, we need the under in both of these semifinal matchups.”
$1 million bets
At least one bettor will lose seven figures on the AFC championship.
A gambler at Caesars Palace wagered $1.3 million to win $1 million on the Chiefs on the money line (-130).
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy bet $1 million to win $5.5 million at DraftKings, which doesn’t operate in Nevada, on the Bills to win the Super Bowl (+550) before their victory over the Ravens last week.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
