Mortgage rates stopped their ascent this week but offered little relief to consumers, in the first full seven-day period since the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest short-term rate cut.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.78% for Nov. 14, down 1 basis point from the prior week’s 6.79%, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported. For the same week last year, it averaged 7.44%.
At the same time, the 15-year FRM dropped to 5.99% from 6% one week ago and 6.76% one year ago.
“After a six-week climb, rates have leveled off, but overall affordability continues to be an issue for potential homebuyers,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “Our latest research shows that mortgage payments compared to rents on the same homes are elevated relative to most of the last three decades.”
Zillow’s rate tracker put the 30-year FRM at 6.55% at 11 a.m. on Thursday morning, unchanged from Wednesday but up 5 basis points from the previous week’s average.
Data from the Optimal Blue product and pricing engine went from a peak of 6.842% on Nov. 6, the day after the presidential election, down to 6.701% two days later. But that went back up to 6.822% on Tuesday before dropping to 6.782% on Wednesday, the last day information is available for.
Over that same period, the 10-year Treasury yield went from 4.43% to 4.31% before increasing back to 4.43% and then 4.45%. By 11 a.m. Thursday, the yield had fallen back to 4.4%.
First American Data & Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi thinks the markets jumped the gun when it came to both long-term bond and mortgage rate expectations.
“Investor expectation of the Fed’s first rate cut in September quickly put downward pressure on mortgage rates, as investors bullishly, and perhaps prematurely, anticipated lower inflation and further rate cuts,” Kushi said in a commentary. “Since then, upwardly revised economic data, including strong employment numbers, and the election have lowered bond market expectations for future rate cuts relative to the Fed’s current projections, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up from its September low.”
Kushi thinks mortgage rates will not go down significantly the rest of this year and into 2025, unless the FOMC “throws us a curveball, such as cutting rates even more than expected.
“But, assuming the economy continues to show signs of normalization and inflation continues to moderate, rates will likely modestly ease through 2025, as the Fed continues with its rate-cutting cycle.”
Earlier this week, BTIG analyst Eric Hagen said he doesn’t think the possibility of a Trump Administration ending the government-sponsored enterprise conservatorships will have a big impact on mortgage rates next year.
Congress should take the opportunity during the lame duck session to advance an affordable housing agenda, Prosperity Now said in a comment on the Consumer Price Index report released this week.
“During this time of political transition, Prosperity Now urges lawmakers to take concrete steps to advance policies that make it easier for families to access affordable mortgages, provide secure housing options, and enable wealth-building through sustainable homeownership,” said Marisa Calderon, the group’s president and CEO.
“Positive trends in inflation as a result of the Federal Reserve’s recent actions on interest rates are a good start, but more actions need to be taken to ensure these economic improvements positively impact the lives of American families,” Calderon said.
