Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo was the only challenger in the country to defeat an incumbent governor in 2022, when he edged Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak by 1.5 percentage points.
Regardless of who wins Nevada’s state primary Tuesday, Democrats are the consensus betting favorites to win back the governor’s mansion in the November election.
Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks. But it’s legal in the United Kingdom, where Democrats are -162 favorites over Republicans (+120) at BetFred to win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election and -150 favorites at Ladbrokes, where Republicans are +110 underdogs.
A negative number represents how much a bettor must wager to win $100. In this case, a bettor at Ladbrokes would have to wager $150 to win $100 on a Democrat to be elected the next Nevada governor. A positive number represents how much a bettor would make on a $100 wager. In this case, a bettor would win $110 on a $100 wager on a Republican to win the election.
Democrats are also -140 favorites over Republicans (+100) at BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that isn’t regulated in the U.S.
The odds are mixed on the gubernatorial race at prediction markets, which are banned from offering event contracts in Nevada.
At Kalshi, Democrats have a 56 percent chance, or implied probability, to win the election, which equates to -127, while Republicans have a 46 percent chance (+117).
At Polymarket, Democrats have a 54 percent chance (-117) and Republicans have a 43 percent chance (+133).
PredictIt is the only market that lists the Republicans as favorites, with a 58 percent chance (-138), over the Democrats (49 percent, +104).
Incumbent state Attorney General Aaron Ford is a massive favorite at Polymarket to win the Nevada Gov. Democratic primary over five other Democrats. Ford has a 99 percent chance, which equates to -9,999, meaning a bettor must wager $9,999 to win $100. Washoe County commissioner Alexis Hill is given a 0.4 percent chance, which equates to a 250-1 underdog.
Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in the state primary. His betting odds to win the primary weren’t posted, though he is widely projected to prevail and run for re-election.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
